Figures obtained by the Greens in Estimates show emergency ambulance response times have risen faster than even the worst projections set out in a major report commissioned by the government.
To help understand what was required to improve ambulance response times, in 2022 the government commissioned expert health consultant ORH to model increasing demand for ambulances and to project how response times would change under different scenarios. The final report was completed and given to the government in April 2023. It included predictions of response times under three scenarios.
The worst projection in the ORH report was described as the ‘Do Nothing Trajectory’. Under this scenario, average emergency response times for ambulances were predicted to keep increasing and hit 14 minutes and 47 seconds in 2025/26. Disturbingly, the real result for this year has been much worse than predicted even by this pessimistic scenario.
Under questioning from the Greens in Budget Estimates, we were told the actual result for emergency responses this year has been 15 minutes and 30 seconds. With every second so crucial in an emergency, that’s a shocker of a result.
This rapid rise in emergency response times is the real world impact of the government refusing to do what is needed to fix this major issue. It is putting patients at greater risk and staff under greater pressure.
ORH didn’t just make predictions in their report – they also laid out exactly what was needed to make things better. But their recommendations have been largely ignored. That is a shame on a government that has spent years focusing instead on building a new stadium in Hobart.
As if this result for average emergency response times wasn’t bad enough, data the Greens obtained in Estimates shows that wait times have spiked for the 90th percentile of emergency cases too.
In 2024/25, the 90th percentile figure for emergency responses was 35.8 minutes – already a shocking rise from 26.3 minutes a decade ago. But in a single year it’s now increased by nearly another three minutes – to 38.7 minutes.
That means in one out of every ten emergencies, Tasmanians are waiting more than 38 and a half minutes for an ambulance. And remember, this isn’t just any triple zero call – these are cases verified as requiring an emergency response.
These results are just not OK. But most distressing of all is that things are set to get even worse, with the government planning to cut spending on ambulance services in 2027-28 to help fix the budget mess they created.
The Rockliff Government’s approach to ambulance services isn’t just bad. Quite frankly it’s negligent. Tasmanians deserve better.
References for all figures cited in this statement and a link to the ORH report are available here
